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Rory Stewart v Daryl Selby (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-9,14-12,6-11,9-11,8-11.

Starting level for Rory Stewart: 20,025, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 40,825, level confidence: 48%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Rory Stewart.

Daryl Selby won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 11% better than Rory Stewart in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 30,971 and 40,825 without affecting his level.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 26,194, his level reduction is 18% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 35,559 (based on typical behaviour), Rory Stewart played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -12% and Rory Stewart changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -2.9% and for Rory Stewart becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell National Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 69%, Rory Stewart: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 51%, Rory Stewart: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rory Stewart: 20,713, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 39,647, level confidence: 51%.