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Sebastien Bonmalais v Guillaume Duquennoy (Wed 13 Feb 2019)

Match won by Sebastien Bonmalais. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 23,616, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Guillaume Duquennoy: 2,024, level confidence: 10%.
Sebastien Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing 1067% better than Guillaume Duquennoy.

Sebastien Bonmalais won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastien Bonmalais played 56% better than Guillaume Duquennoy in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Sebastien Bonmalais was taking it easy by anything up to 62%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,373 and 23,616 without affecting his level.

As Sebastien Bonmalais has played below his allowed range at 3,268, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Sebastien Bonmalais would normally have been playing at level 8,926 (based on typical behaviour), Guillaume Duquennoy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 68%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais changes to 0% and Guillaume Duquennoy changes to +16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes -0.1% and for Guillaume Duquennoy becomes +7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior French Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastien Bonmalais: 82%, Guillaume Duquennoy: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastien Bonmalais: 30%, Guillaume Duquennoy: 12%.

Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais: 23,602, level confidence: 30%.
Final level for Guillaume Duquennoy: 2,169, level confidence: 12%.