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Gregoire Marche v Paul Gonzalez (Wed 13 Feb 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-0,11-2,11-5.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 48,211, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,739, level confidence: 54%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 615% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 371% better than Paul Gonzalez in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Gregoire Marche was taking it easy by anything up to 52%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,232 and 48,211 without affecting his level.

In this case, Gregoire Marche played at level 31,770 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Paul Gonzalez is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 83%, Paul Gonzalez: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 67%, Paul Gonzalez: 60%.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 48,211, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,739, level confidence: 60%.