Raphael Kandra v Willi Wingelsdorf (Thu 07 Feb 2019)
Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-3.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
39,698, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Willi Wingelsdorf:
6,236, level confidence: 47%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing
537% better than Willi Wingelsdorf.
Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played
313% better than Willi Wingelsdorf in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 49%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,394 and 39,698 without affecting his level.
In this case, Raphael Kandra played at level 25,724 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Willi Wingelsdorf is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 78%, Willi Wingelsdorf: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 63%, Willi Wingelsdorf: 55%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
39,639, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Willi Wingelsdorf:
6,227, level confidence: 55%.