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Michael McLaughlin v Matthew Stephenson (Fri 15 Feb 2019)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-1.

Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,890, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Matthew Stephenson: 8,975, level confidence: 50%.
Matthew Stephenson to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Michael McLaughlin.

Michael McLaughlin won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 94% better than Matthew Stephenson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael McLaughlin actually played at a level of 12,445 and Matthew Stephenson at a level of 6,411. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to +31% and Matthew Stephenson changes to -40%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes +8% and for Matthew Stephenson becomes -9.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell British National Masters Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Matthew Stephenson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 80%, Matthew Stephenson: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 57%, Matthew Stephenson: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,591, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Matthew Stephenson: 8,535, level confidence: 50%.