Michael McLaughlin v Sam Levin (Mon 11 Feb 2019)
Match won by Sam Levin. Result: 4-11,8-11,12-10,12-10,3-11.
Starting level for
Michael McLaughlin:
9,086, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Sam Levin:
6,585, level confidence: 65%.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Sam Levin.
Sam Levin won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Levin played
16% better than Michael McLaughlin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Levin actually played at a level of
8,348 and Michael McLaughlin at a level of
7,167. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Levin changes to +22% and Michael McLaughlin changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Levin becomes +6.6% and for Michael McLaughlin becomes -5.9%.
Given Sam Levin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.3% has been applied to his level change.
Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Sam Levin is +4.6% and for Michael McLaughlin is -3.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Levin: 81%, Michael McLaughlin: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Levin: 64%, Michael McLaughlin: 65%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin:
8,777, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Sam Levin:
6,907, level confidence: 64%.