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Ondrej Uherka v Daryl Selby (Wed 13 Feb 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-7,8-11,11-4,2-11,5-11.

Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 15,008, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 41,503, level confidence: 57%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 177% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Daryl Selby won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 12% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,889 and 41,503 without affecting his level.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 20,059, his level reduction is 19% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 32,469 (based on typical behaviour), Ondrej Uherka played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 39%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11.1% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -11.1% and Ondrej Uherka changes to +21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -2.6% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes +5.2%.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 70% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Ondrej Uherka's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is -1.1% and for Ondrej Uherka is +3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 76%, Ondrej Uherka: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 48%, Ondrej Uherka: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 15,438, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 40,973, level confidence: 48%.