SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Marcus Hayes v Kaylen Mistry (Mon 11 Feb 2019)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,006, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kaylen Mistry: 3,689, level confidence: 66%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 117% better than Kaylen Mistry.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 154% better than Kaylen Mistry in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of 8,659 and Kaylen Mistry at a level of 3,411. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +4.5% and Kaylen Mistry changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +1.9% and for Kaylen Mistry becomes -2.7%.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is +1.3% and for Kaylen Mistry is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 89%, Kaylen Mistry: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 83%, Kaylen Mistry: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,099, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Kaylen Mistry: 3,611, level confidence: 75%.