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Steven Richardson v Declan James (Wed 06 Feb 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 8-11,8-11,7-11.

Starting level for Steven Richardson: 12,695, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Declan James: 37,726, level confidence: 60%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 197% better than Steven Richardson.

Declan James won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 47% better than Steven Richardson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Declan James was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 20,287 and 37,726 without affecting his level.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 19,476, his level reduction is 4.2% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 28,635 (based on typical behaviour), Steven Richardson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -2.4% and Steven Richardson changes to +10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -0.9% and for Steven Richardson becomes +3.1%.

Given Declan James's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 65% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Steven Richardson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Declan James is -0.4% and for Steven Richardson is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 78%, Steven Richardson: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 55%, Steven Richardson: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Richardson: 12,914, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Declan James: 37,513, level confidence: 55%.