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Borja Golan v Iker Pajares (Sat 09 Feb 2019)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 11-8,11-13,11-9,7-11,11-7.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 40,603, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Iker Pajares: 34,849, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Iker Pajares.

Borja Golan won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 9% better than Iker Pajares in this match.

As Borja Golan has played below his allowed range at 39,039, his level reduction is 2.7% before damping. On the assumption that Borja Golan would normally have been playing at level 40,350 (based on typical behaviour), Iker Pajares played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to -2.1% and Iker Pajares changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes -0.8% and for Iker Pajares becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Spanish Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 94%, Iker Pajares: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 91%, Iker Pajares: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Borja Golan: 40,254, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Iker Pajares: 35,310, level confidence: 83%.