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Edmon Lopez Moller v Pascal Gomez (Fri 08 Feb 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-1,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 29,011, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Pascal Gomez: 13,234, level confidence: 25%.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 119% better than Pascal Gomez.

Edmon Lopez Moller won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 175% better than Pascal Gomez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 32,493 and Pascal Gomez at a level of 11,816. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8% and 8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +3.1% and Pascal Gomez changes to -8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +1.2% and for Pascal Gomez becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Spanish Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 81%, Pascal Gomez: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 72%, Pascal Gomez: 45%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 29,368, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Pascal Gomez: 12,969, level confidence: 45%.