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Zahed Mohamed v Campbell Grayson (Thu 07 Feb 2019)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 11-9,13-15,12-10,11-6.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 41,357, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 31,280, level confidence: 68%.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Campbell Grayson.

Zahed Mohamed won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 23% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

As Zahed Mohamed has played below his allowed range at 38,813, his level reduction is 1.3% before damping. On the assumption that Zahed Mohamed would normally have been playing at level 40,319 (based on typical behaviour), Campbell Grayson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to -0.9% and Campbell Grayson changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes -0.3% and for Campbell Grayson becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 92%, Campbell Grayson: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 88%, Campbell Grayson: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 41,100, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 31,701, level confidence: 80%.