Arturo Salazar v Ryan Cuskelly (Thu 07 Feb 2019)
Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 4-11,11-9,11-7,11-4.
Starting level for
Arturo Salazar:
36,456, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Ryan Cuskelly:
47,342, level confidence: 67%.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Arturo Salazar.
Arturo Salazar won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played
23% better than Ryan Cuskelly in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Arturo Salazar actually played at a level of
46,100 and Ryan Cuskelly at a level of
37,438. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar changes to +23% and Ryan Cuskelly changes to -23%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar becomes +4.7% and for Ryan Cuskelly becomes -4.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 82%, Ryan Cuskelly: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 65%, Ryan Cuskelly: 65%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Arturo Salazar:
38,114, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly:
45,450, level confidence: 65%.