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Emyr Evans v Sebastian Bonmalais (Thu 07 Feb 2019)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-7,7-11,5-11,11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,075, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 24,256, level confidence: 54%.
Sebastian Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Emyr Evans.

Emyr Evans won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 9% better than Sebastian Bonmalais in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of 24,732 and Sebastian Bonmalais at a level of 22,631. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +4.3% and Sebastian Bonmalais changes to -7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +1.5% and for Sebastian Bonmalais becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Bankers Hall Club Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 93%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 87%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,459, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 23,839, level confidence: 69%.