Campbell Grayson v Mohamed Elsherbini (Wed 06 Feb 2019)
Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 7-11,11-1,13-11,3-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
30,720, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elsherbini:
33,665, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Campbell Grayson.
Campbell Grayson won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played
11% better than Mohamed Elsherbini in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of
33,824 and Mohamed Elsherbini at a level of
30,575. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +9.6% and Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -6.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +2.5% and for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 75%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 68%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 82%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
31,500, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini:
33,141, level confidence: 82%.