Raphael Kandra v Dimitri Steinmann (Thu 13 Dec 2018)
Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-3,11-2,9-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
42,273, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Dimitri Steinmann:
32,245, level confidence: 64%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Dimitri Steinmann.
Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played
50% better than Dimitri Steinmann in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of
45,180 and Dimitri Steinmann at a level of
30,170. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +4.8% and Dimitri Steinmann changes to -6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +1.5% and for Dimitri Steinmann becomes -1.8%.
Given Raphael Kandra's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 71% has been applied to his level change.
Given Dimitri Steinmann's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 58% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Raphael Kandra is +0.6% and for Dimitri Steinmann is -0.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 90%, Dimitri Steinmann: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 84%, Dimitri Steinmann: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
42,650, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Dimitri Steinmann:
32,058, level confidence: 75%.