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Joel Makin v Valentin Rapp (Thu 29 Nov 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-2.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 48,031, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Valentin Rapp: 21,605, level confidence: 59%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Valentin Rapp.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 154% better than Valentin Rapp in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 51,324 and Valentin Rapp at a level of 20,219. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +3.5% and Valentin Rapp changes to -4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +1.2% and for Valentin Rapp becomes -1.6%.

Given Joel Makin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 77% has been applied to his level change.

Given Valentin Rapp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is +0.5% and for Valentin Rapp is -0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 88%, Valentin Rapp: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 82%, Valentin Rapp: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 48,395, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Valentin Rapp: 21,477, level confidence: 72%.