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George Parker v Greg Lobban (Wed 06 Feb 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 4-11,11-5,10-12,8-11.

Starting level for George Parker: 39,888, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,538, level confidence: 63%.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Greg Lobban.

Greg Lobban won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 23% better than George Parker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 43,439 and George Parker at a level of 35,388. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +12% and George Parker changes to -9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +2.9% and for George Parker becomes -2.3%.

Given Greg Lobban's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 66% has been applied to his level change.

Given George Parker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 68% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Greg Lobban is +1.3% and for George Parker is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 80%, George Parker: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 71%, George Parker: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 39,584, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 39,137, level confidence: 71%.