Lee Rossiter v Michael McLaughlin (Mon 04 Feb 2019)
Match won by Lee Rossiter. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-7.
Starting level for
Lee Rossiter:
8,997, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Michael McLaughlin:
9,438, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Lee Rossiter.
Lee Rossiter won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lee Rossiter played
52% better than Michael McLaughlin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lee Rossiter actually played at a level of
11,348 and Michael McLaughlin at a level of
7,483. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lee Rossiter changes to +25% and Michael McLaughlin changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lee Rossiter becomes +6.8% and for Michael McLaughlin becomes -6.5%.
Given Lee Rossiter's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.
Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Lee Rossiter is +4.4% and for Michael McLaughlin is -4.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lee Rossiter: 86%, Michael McLaughlin: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lee Rossiter: 68%, Michael McLaughlin: 70%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Lee Rossiter:
9,420, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin:
9,089, level confidence: 70%.