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Sam Todd v Chris Simpson (Wed 06 Feb 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 4-11,7-11,10-12.

Starting level for Sam Todd: 17,548, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 34,293, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Sam Todd.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 62% better than Sam Todd in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,993 and 34,293 without affecting his level.

In this case, Chris Simpson played at level 29,350 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 30,319 (based on typical behaviour), Sam Todd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to 0% and Sam Todd changes to +2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes 0% and for Sam Todd becomes +1%.

Given Sam Todd's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is 0% and for Sam Todd is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 88%, Sam Todd: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 80%, Sam Todd: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Todd: 17,694, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 34,379, level confidence: 80%.