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Andrew Breen v Pete Billson (Tue 05 Feb 2019)

Match won by Pete Billson. Result: 8-11,2-11,1-11.

Starting level for Andrew Breen: 6,623, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Pete Billson: 16,714, level confidence: 56%.
Pete Billson to win as he is currently playing 152% better than Andrew Breen.

Pete Billson won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pete Billson played 200% better than Andrew Breen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pete Billson actually played at a level of 18,223 and Andrew Breen at a level of 6,074. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pete Billson changes to +5.6% and Andrew Breen changes to -4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pete Billson becomes +1.9% and for Andrew Breen becomes -2.1%.

Given Pete Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Andrew Breen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Pete Billson is +1.1% and for Andrew Breen is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pete Billson: 75%, Andrew Breen: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pete Billson: 68%, Andrew Breen: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Breen: 6,517, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Pete Billson: 16,869, level confidence: 68%.