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Peter Billson v Lewis Doughty (Tue 29 Jan 2019)

Match won by Peter Billson. Result: 11-6,11-4,6-11,12-10.

Starting level for Peter Billson: 16,906, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Lewis Doughty: 8,894, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Lewis Doughty.

Peter Billson won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Billson played 26% better than Lewis Doughty in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Billson was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,096 and 16,906 without affecting his level.

As Peter Billson has played below his allowed range at 12,130, his level reduction is 8% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Billson would normally have been playing at level 15,092 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Doughty played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Billson changes to -5.7% and Lewis Doughty changes to +8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Billson becomes -1.9% and for Lewis Doughty becomes +2.9%.

Given Peter Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Doughty's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Billson is -1.1% and for Lewis Doughty is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Billson: 75%, Lewis Doughty: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Billson: 61%, Lewis Doughty: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Billson: 16,699, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Lewis Doughty: 9,050, level confidence: 70%.