Mohamed Abouelghar v Diego Elias (Sat 02 Feb 2019)
Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 5-11,11-6,11-3,4-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Mohamed Abouelghar:
50,832, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Diego Elias:
55,332, level confidence: 52%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Mohamed Abouelghar.
Mohamed Abouelghar won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played
9% better than Diego Elias in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of
55,477 and Diego Elias at a level of
50,699. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +5.2% and Diego Elias changes to -8.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +1.5% and for Diego Elias becomes -2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 94%, Diego Elias: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 86%, Diego Elias: 66%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar:
51,604, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Diego Elias:
54,297, level confidence: 66%.