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James Willstrop v Alan Clyne (Sat 02 Feb 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 16-14,2-11,11-9,11-9.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 42,826, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 34,249, level confidence: 65%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Alan Clyne.

James Willstrop won 75% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 14% better than Alan Clyne in this match.

As James Willstrop has played below his allowed range at 40,303, his level reduction is 2.8% before damping. On the assumption that James Willstrop would normally have been playing at level 42,128 (based on typical behaviour), Alan Clyne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 3.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to -2.1% and Alan Clyne changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes -0.8% and for Alan Clyne becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Edinburgh Sports Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 87%, Alan Clyne: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 84%, Alan Clyne: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 42,416, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 34,757, level confidence: 77%.