Mohamed Elsherbini v Andrew Schnell (Fri 01 Feb 2019)
Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-7.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elsherbini:
33,361, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Andrew Schnell:
26,000, level confidence: 58%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing
28% better than Andrew Schnell.
Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played
52% better than Andrew Schnell in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of
36,268 and Andrew Schnell at a level of
23,916. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 7.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +5.7% and Andrew Schnell changes to -7.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +1.7% and for Andrew Schnell becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Seattle Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 88%, Andrew Schnell: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 81%, Andrew Schnell: 70%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini:
33,845, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Andrew Schnell:
25,601, level confidence: 70%.