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Mohamed Abouelghar v Zahed Mohamed (Fri 01 Feb 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-9,6-11,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 51,124, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 41,242, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Zahed Mohamed.

Mohamed Abouelghar won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 20% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.

As Mohamed Abouelghar has played below his allowed range at 49,442, his level reduction is 0.3% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Abouelghar would normally have been playing at level 50,357 (based on typical behaviour), Zahed Mohamed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to 0% and Zahed Mohamed changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes -0.1% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 90%, Zahed Mohamed: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 89%, Zahed Mohamed: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 50,939, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 41,602, level confidence: 86%.