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Alan Clyne v Greg Lobban (Fri 01 Feb 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-8,11-8,5-11,11-4.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 33,301, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,662, level confidence: 64%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Alan Clyne.

Alan Clyne won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 24% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 39,988 and Greg Lobban at a level of 32,196. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +19% and Greg Lobban changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +4% and for Greg Lobban becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Edinburgh Sports Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 78%, Greg Lobban: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 65%, Greg Lobban: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 34,609, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 37,396, level confidence: 66%.