Mohamed Elsherbini v Daniel Mekbib (Thu 31 Jan 2019)
Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-8,11-13,13-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elsherbini:
33,531, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Daniel Mekbib:
27,409, level confidence: 68%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Daniel Mekbib.
Mohamed Elsherbini won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played
24% better than Daniel Mekbib in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of
33,717 and Daniel Mekbib at a level of
27,258. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +0.5% and Daniel Mekbib changes to -0.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +0.2% and for Daniel Mekbib becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Seattle Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 79%, Daniel Mekbib: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 79%, Daniel Mekbib: 82%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini:
33,594, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Daniel Mekbib:
27,477, level confidence: 82%.