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Zahed Mohamed v Miguel Rodriguez (Thu 31 Jan 2019)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 6-11,11-8,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 40,097, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 47,109, level confidence: 69%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Zahed Mohamed.

Zahed Mohamed won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 28% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zahed Mohamed actually played at a level of 49,196 and Miguel Rodriguez at a level of 38,396. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to +16% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes +3.4% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 95%, Miguel Rodriguez: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 78%, Miguel Rodriguez: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 41,432, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 45,406, level confidence: 68%.