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Mohamed Abouelghar v Adrian Waller (Thu 31 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-7,6-11,11-8,2-11,11-9.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 51,935, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 41,406, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Adrian Waller.

Mohamed Abouelghar won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 5% better than Adrian Waller in this match.

As Mohamed Abouelghar has played below his allowed range at 46,672, his level reduction is 7.6% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Abouelghar would normally have been playing at level 51,064 (based on typical behaviour), Adrian Waller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 7.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to -6.7% and Adrian Waller changes to +7.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes -1.8% and for Adrian Waller becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 89%, Adrian Waller: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 82%, Adrian Waller: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 51,039, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 42,270, level confidence: 82%.