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James Willstrop v Jamie Henderson (Thu 31 Jan 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 43,359, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jamie Henderson: 13,306, level confidence: 68%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 226% better than Jamie Henderson.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 56% better than Jamie Henderson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Willstrop was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,987 and 43,359 without affecting his level.

As James Willstrop has played below his allowed range at 21,874, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that James Willstrop would normally have been playing at level 31,570 (based on typical behaviour), Jamie Henderson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to -2.4% and Jamie Henderson changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes -0.9% and for Jamie Henderson becomes +3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Edinburgh Sports Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 88%, Jamie Henderson: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 61%, Jamie Henderson: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 42,899, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Jamie Henderson: 13,747, level confidence: 57%.