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Mohamed Elsherbini v Faraz Khan (Wed 30 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 14-12,11-5,15-13.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 33,849, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Faraz Khan: 18,359, level confidence: 59%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 84% better than Faraz Khan.

Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 40% better than Faraz Khan in this match.

As Mohamed Elsherbini has played below his allowed range at 26,642, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elsherbini would normally have been playing at level 30,522 (based on typical behaviour), Faraz Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 6.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -2.4% and Faraz Khan changes to +5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -0.9% and for Faraz Khan becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Seattle Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 72%, Faraz Khan: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 63%, Faraz Khan: 67%.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 33,531, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Faraz Khan: 18,702, level confidence: 67%.