Adrian Waller v Raphael Kandra (Wed 30 Jan 2019)
Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 9-11,12-10,11-6,5-11,11-7.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
40,805, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
40,154, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing
2% better than Raphael Kandra.
Adrian Waller won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played
9% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of
42,293 and Raphael Kandra at a level of
38,741. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +3.6% and Raphael Kandra changes to -3.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +1.3% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 84%, Raphael Kandra: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 81%, Raphael Kandra: 83%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
41,316, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
39,766, level confidence: 83%.