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Ryan Cuskelly v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Wed 30 Jan 2019)

Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 11-2,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Ryan Cuskelly: 46,078, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 34,990, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Ryan Cuskelly won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played 83% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Cuskelly actually played at a level of 54,368 and Iker Pajares Bernabeu at a level of 29,655. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly changes to +16% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly becomes +3.3% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 82%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 69%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Cuskelly: 47,364, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 34,176, level confidence: 74%.