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Adrain Waller v Mahesh Mangaonkar (Tue 29 Jan 2019)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-9.

Starting level for Adrain Waller: 40,237, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 36,229, level confidence: 67%.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar.

Adrain Waller won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 42% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrain Waller actually played at a level of 45,540 and Mahesh Mangaonkar at a level of 32,010. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to +12% and Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes +2.9% and for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 80%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 71%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrain Waller: 41,273, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,435, level confidence: 73%.