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Peter Campbell v Peter Billson (Wed 30 Jan 2019)

Match won by Peter Billson. Result: 8-11,6-11,10-12.

Starting level for Peter Campbell: 6,176, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Peter Billson: 16,699, level confidence: 61%.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 170% better than Peter Campbell.

Peter Billson won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Billson played 46% better than Peter Campbell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Billson was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,810 and 16,699 without affecting his level.

As Peter Billson has played below his allowed range at 9,407, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Billson would normally have been playing at level 13,183 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Campbell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Billson changes to -2.6% and Peter Campbell changes to +10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Billson becomes -1.2% and for Peter Campbell becomes +3.8%.

Given Peter Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Peter Campbell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Billson is -0.6% and for Peter Campbell is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Billson: 78%, Peter Campbell: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Billson: 57%, Peter Campbell: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Campbell: 6,334, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Peter Billson: 16,567, level confidence: 57%.