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Lewis Walters v Nick Matthew (Wed 30 Jan 2019)

Match won by Nick Matthew. Result: 5-11,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Lewis Walters: 18,652, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Nick Matthew: 54,159, level confidence: 64%.
Nick Matthew to win as he is currently playing 190% better than Lewis Walters.

Nick Matthew won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Matthew played 65% better than Lewis Walters in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nick Matthew was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 29,783 and 54,159 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nick Matthew played at level 35,746 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nick Matthew would normally have been playing at level 41,519 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Walters played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Matthew changes to 0% and Lewis Walters changes to +9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Matthew becomes 0% and for Lewis Walters becomes +2.6%.

Given Lewis Walters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nick Matthew is 0% and for Lewis Walters is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Matthew: 80%, Lewis Walters: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Matthew: 60%, Lewis Walters: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Walters: 18,967, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Nick Matthew: 54,294, level confidence: 60%.