Nick Mulvey v Michael McLaughlin (Tue 29 Jan 2019)
Match won by Nick Mulvey. Result: 11-8,12-10,11-9.
Starting level for
Nick Mulvey:
17,365, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Michael McLaughlin:
9,260, level confidence: 56%.
Nick Mulvey to win as he is currently playing
88% better than Michael McLaughlin.
Nick Mulvey won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Mulvey played
36% better than Michael McLaughlin in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nick Mulvey was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,589 and 17,365 without affecting his level.
As Nick Mulvey has played below his allowed range at 13,059, his level reduction is 4.1% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Mulvey would normally have been playing at level 15,572 (based on typical behaviour), Michael McLaughlin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 8.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Mulvey changes to -2.1% and Michael McLaughlin changes to +8.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Mulvey becomes -0.9% and for Michael McLaughlin becomes +2.8%.
Given Nick Mulvey's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.
Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Nick Mulvey is -0.5% and for Michael McLaughlin is +1.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Mulvey: 88%, Michael McLaughlin: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Mulvey: 75%, Michael McLaughlin: 63%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Mulvey:
17,318, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin:
9,452, level confidence: 63%.