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Michael McLaughlin v Jago Nardelli (Mon 28 Jan 2019)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-9,13-11,10-12,5-11,11-5.

Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,443, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Jago Nardelli: 5,159, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 83% better than Jago Nardelli.

Michael McLaughlin won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 9% better than Jago Nardelli in this match.

As Michael McLaughlin has played below his allowed range at 6,489, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Michael McLaughlin would normally have been playing at level 8,534 (based on typical behaviour), Jago Nardelli played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to -12% and Jago Nardelli changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes -3.6% and for Jago Nardelli becomes +4.2%.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Jago Nardelli's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is -2.3% and for Jago Nardelli is +3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 73%, Jago Nardelli: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 56%, Jago Nardelli: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,254, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Jago Nardelli: 5,336, level confidence: 66%.