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Salma Hany v Laura Massaro (Mon 21 Jan 2019)

Match won by Salma Hany. Result: 11-4,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Salma Hany: 8,885, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Laura Massaro: 9,909, level confidence: 65%.
Laura Massaro to win as she is currently playing 12% better than Salma Hany.

Salma Hany won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Salma Hany played 65% better than Laura Massaro in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Salma Hany actually played at a level of 12,053 and Laura Massaro at a level of 7,305. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Salma Hany changes to +32% and Laura Massaro changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Salma Hany becomes +8.1% and for Laura Massaro becomes -8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Salma Hany is limited to +5.1% and Laura Massaro is limited to -4.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Salma Hany: 83%, Laura Massaro: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Salma Hany: 61%, Laura Massaro: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Salma Hany: 9,322, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Laura Massaro: 9,425, level confidence: 60%.