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Ali Farag v Daryl Selby (Mon 21 Jan 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 15-13,12-10,13-11.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 69,517, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 43,280, level confidence: 56%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Daryl Selby.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 30% better than Daryl Selby in this match.

As Ali Farag has played below his allowed range at 58,597, his level reduction is 4.2% before damping. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 65,140 (based on typical behaviour), Daryl Selby played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to -2.7% and Daryl Selby changes to +6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes -0.9% and for Daryl Selby becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 82%, Daryl Selby: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 74%, Daryl Selby: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 68,738, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 44,147, level confidence: 67%.