SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Omar Mosaad v Greg Lobban (Mon 21 Jan 2019)

Match won by Omar Mosaad. Result: 12-10,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 37,505, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 40,609, level confidence: 65%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Omar Mosaad.

Omar Mosaad won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar Mosaad played 42% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Omar Mosaad actually played at a level of 46,549 and Greg Lobban at a level of 32,719. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad changes to +23% and Greg Lobban changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad becomes +4.6% and for Greg Lobban becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar Mosaad: 81%, Greg Lobban: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar Mosaad: 66%, Greg Lobban: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Omar Mosaad: 39,090, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,973, level confidence: 65%.