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Daryl Selby v Youssef Soliman (Sun 20 Jan 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-9,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 41,894, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 36,641, level confidence: 62%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Youssef Soliman.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 52% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 48,248 and Youssef Soliman at a level of 31,815. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +14% and Youssef Soliman changes to -9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +3.1% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 65%, Youssef Soliman: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 56%, Youssef Soliman: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 43,019, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 35,941, level confidence: 68%.