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Gregoire Marche v Lucas Serme (Sun 20 Jan 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 44,391, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lucas Serme: 37,781, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Lucas Serme.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 83% better than Lucas Serme in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 55,450 and Lucas Serme at a level of 30,246. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +22% and Lucas Serme changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +4.4% and for Lucas Serme becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 88%, Lucas Serme: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 71%, Lucas Serme: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 46,057, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Lucas Serme: 36,350, level confidence: 70%.