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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Nicolas Mueller (Sun 20 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-4,12-10,11-4.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 66,126, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 38,215, level confidence: 64%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Nicolas Mueller.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 89% better than Nicolas Mueller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 69,089 and Nicolas Mueller at a level of 36,576. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 3.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +3.4% and Nicolas Mueller changes to -3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +1.1% and for Nicolas Mueller becomes -1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 77%, Nicolas Mueller: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 74%, Nicolas Mueller: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 66,166, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 38,187, level confidence: 77%.