Todd Harrity v Tsz Fung Yip (Sat 19 Jan 2019)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 6-11,11-7,12-10,11-7.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
30,410, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
39,926, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Todd Harrity.
Todd Harrity won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
21% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
38,403 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of
31,616. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +23% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +4.8% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -4.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 83%, Tsz Fung Yip: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 65%, Tsz Fung Yip: 67%.
A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
31,808, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
39,121, level confidence: 67%.