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Peter Billson v Lucas Hughes (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Peter Billson. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Peter Billson: 16,974, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Lucas Hughes: 8,476, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Lucas Hughes.

Peter Billson won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Billson played 52% better than Lucas Hughes in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Billson was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,590 and 16,974 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Billson played at level 13,822 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Billson would normally have been playing at level 14,863 (based on typical behaviour), Lucas Hughes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Billson changes to 0% and Lucas Hughes changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Billson becomes 0% and for Lucas Hughes becomes +1.8%.

Given Lucas Hughes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Billson is 0% and for Lucas Hughes is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Billson: 76%, Lucas Hughes: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Billson: 66%, Lucas Hughes: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Billson: 17,016, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Lucas Hughes: 8,597, level confidence: 77%.