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Greg Lobban v Patrick Rooney (Wed 23 Jan 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-9,11-7,3-11,11-6.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,973, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 27,940, level confidence: 68%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Patrick Rooney.

Greg Lobban won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 20% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

As Greg Lobban has played below his allowed range at 34,718, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Greg Lobban would normally have been playing at level 37,634 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick Rooney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 5.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to -3.2% and Patrick Rooney changes to +4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes -1.2% and for Patrick Rooney becomes +1.6%.

Given Greg Lobban's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 67% has been applied to his level change.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 52% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Greg Lobban is -0.5% and for Patrick Rooney is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 80%, Patrick Rooney: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 74%, Patrick Rooney: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,863, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 28,227, level confidence: 77%.