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Declan James v Michael Pittams (Wed 23 Jan 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Declan James: 38,744, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Pittams: 11,028, level confidence: 57%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 251% better than Michael Pittams.

Declan James won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 65% better than Michael Pittams in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Declan James was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,484 and 38,744 without affecting his level.

In this case, Declan James played at level 22,248 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 27,203 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Pittams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to 0% and Michael Pittams changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes 0% and for Michael Pittams becomes +3.4%.

Given Michael Pittams's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Declan James is 0% and for Michael Pittams is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 89%, Michael Pittams: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 61%, Michael Pittams: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 38,686, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Michael Pittams: 11,246, level confidence: 52%.