Tim Vail v Daryl Selby (Wed 23 Jan 2019)
Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 14-12,12-14,7-11,8-11.
Starting level for
Tim Vail:
21,242, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Daryl Selby:
43,763, level confidence: 66%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing
106% better than Tim Vail.
Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played
22% better than Tim Vail in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 31,845 and 43,763 without affecting his level.
As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 28,773, his level reduction is 10.7% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 37,997 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Vail played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 14% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -7.3% and Tim Vail changes to +13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -1.9% and for Tim Vail becomes +3.4%.
Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 73% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...
Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is -0.8% and for Tim Vail is +1.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 81%, Tim Vail: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 63%, Tim Vail: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tim Vail:
21,589, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Daryl Selby:
43,337, level confidence: 63%.